Skymet Downgrades Monsoon 2021 Forecast To Below Normal (-6% Of LPA)

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Skymet Weather Services Pvt Ltd, India’s leading weather analytics firm, had released its monsoon foreshadow for 2021 on April 13, 2021, and is now updating the forecast. Skymet believes that there is a 60% chance of below normal, forecasting monsoon to be at 94% of the long period average with an error margin of +/- 4% (LPA= 880.6mm for the 4 month period from June to September.

The Southwest Monsoon had a timely onset and made a good start with June ending above normal at 110% of the long period average (LPA). July started on a weak note and the month was marred with a pronged break till 11th July. Therefore the month finished with below normal rainfall at 93% of LPA.  June and July ended with 110% and 93% of LPA against Skymet’s forecast of 106% and 97% respectively.

The Southwest Monsoon encountered a second ‘break monsoon’ phase during the first fortnight of August. Extended weak monsoon conditions resulted in Pan-India seasonal rainfall deficiency settling at 9% till the middle of August. The below normal status of monsoon has not improved till now.

Skymet Expects SW Monsoon To Be Below Normal For 2021
In terms of geographical risk, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha, Kerala and Northeast India are likely to be hit with deficient rains. The chance of drought over Gujarat and West Rajasthan appears imminent. However, the spatial distribution of rainfall over the rainfed areas of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh has been adequate. Accordingly, the food production in the Agri bowl of central parts may not be stressed and skewed.

According to Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet, "The weakness in the monsoon could possibly be attributed to the prolonged negative phase of IOD in the Indian Ocean and extended break conditions in July and August. There is still no clear signal about the emergence of IOD in September".

Considering the present scenario, Skymet Weather has revised the forecast for Monsoon 2021 to 94 per cent of the LPA. On monthly basis, the Monsoon forecast (assuming an error margin of +/-4%) is as follow:

August - 80% of LPA (LPA for August = 258.2 mm)

  • 80% chance of deficit
  • 20% chance of below normal
  • September - 100% of LPA (LPA for September = 170.2 mm)
  • 60% chance of normal
  • 20% chance of above normal
  • 20% chance of below normal

According to Skymet’s calculations (assuming an error margin of  +/- 4% ), the following is the Monsoon risk for the season 2021:

  • 20% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall being less than 90% of LPA)
  • 60% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall being between 90-95% of LPA)
  • 10% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall being between 96-104% of LPA)
  • 10% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall being between 105-110% of LPA)
  • 0%   chance of excess (seasonal rainfall is more than 110% of LPA)

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